Texas vs. Iowa State odds, line: 2018 college football picks, predictions from expert who’s 7-2 on Longhorns, Cyclones games

A crucial game in the Big 12 title race highlights the Week 12 college football schedule on Saturday at 8 p.m. ET when surging No. 18 Iowa State visits No. 12 Texas. The winner will remain alive for a title-game berth, while the loser will be all but eliminated from contention. The Cyclones have quietly won five straight to put themselves in contention. They are coming off a workmanlike 28-14 victory over Baylor. The Longhorns overcame a heartbreaking loss to West Virginia with a 41-34 road win against Texas Tech last week to keep their own title hopes alive.

The Longhorns are three-point favorites and the over-under for total points scored is 46.5 in the latest Texas vs. Iowa State odds. Before you make any Texas vs. Iowa State picks, be sure to check out what SportsLine senior analyst Josh Nagel has to say.

A Nevada-based expert with 20 years of experience in the sports wagering industry, Nagel specializes in handicapping college athletics. Moreover, he has had a keen eye for the tendencies of Big 12 programs and boasts a record of 7-2 on picks in games involving Iowa State or Texas over the past two seasons.

Three weeks ago, Nagel advised SportsLine members to anticipate a letdown spot for the Longhorns as a road favorite against persistent nemesis Oklahoma State (+3.5). The result: the Cowboys dominated most of the way and held on for a 38-35 victory. Anyone who followed Nagel’s advice booked another comfortable winner.

Now, Nagel has studied Iowa State vs. Texas from every possible angle and released a strong point-spread selection that is only available at SportsLine.

He has taken into account Iowa State’s rapid transformation under coach Matt Campbell from a program that was an occasional headache as an underdog against upper-tier opponents to one that has to be taken seriously on a weekly basis. The Cyclones (6-3) started their turnaround with an upset of Oklahoma last year as a 31-point underdog. Their subsequent wins against Big 12 stalwarts have come as far less of a surprise. Their current five-game win streak includes a dominant 30-14 win over West Virginia, which remains the Mountaineers’ lone loss on the season.

But their recent success is no guarantee of a cover against a resilient Texas squad that remained in the Big 12 title hunt thanks to a gutsy victory last week.

The Longhorns (7-3) took control of the Big 12 race with their upset of Oklahoma, but saw their grip slip away with consecutive losses to Oklahoma State and West Virginia. Last week, they let a 17-point lead slip away in the fourth quarter when Texas Tech rallied for three straight scores and a 34-34 tie. But quarterback Sam Ehlinger led another game-winning drive, capped by his 29-yard touchdown pass to Lil’Jordan Humphrey with 21 seconds left.

Ehlinger finished with 312 passing yards and four touchdowns and zero interceptions. The defense forced three turnovers to help offset 595 yards of offense from the Red Raiders. 

We can tell you Nagel is leaning toward the Over, but his much stronger play is on the side. He has identified the critical x-factor that should determine the spread outcome, and he’s only sharing it at SportsLine.

Who covers in Texas vs. Iowa State? And what critical x-factor determines the spread? Visit SportsLine now to see which side you need to jump all over Saturday, all from a senior analyst who’s hitting almost 80 of his picks involving these teams. 

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