Patriots vs. Bills odds, line: Monday Night Football picks, predictions from proven expert who’s 16-7 on New England games

AFC rivals square off on Monday Night Football when the Buffalo Bills host the New England Patriots at 8:15 p.m. ET. The Bills (2-5) have played just two home games, winning the last one over the Titans three weeks ago. The Patriots (5-2) have won four straight led by an offense that’s getting hot. New England is favored by 13.5 points in the most recent Patriots vs. Bills odds, up from the opening line of -13, while the Over-Under for total points scored is 44.5. While the Pats are overwhelming teams with offense, the Bills have the NFL’s fourth-ranked defense, so before making any Patriots vs. Bills picks, you’ll want to see what SportsLine expert Stephen Oh is saying about the matchup.

A renowned data scientist who co-founded Accuscore, Oh has an uncanny beat on the Patriots. In his last 23 picks involving New England, against the spread or on the money line, Oh has been correct 16 times. Anyone who has followed him is way up. Now, Oh has crunched the numbers for Patriots vs. Bills and produced a strong point-spread pick that he’s revealing only at SportsLine.

The Patriots’ offense has really picked it up after a subpar start to the season. The defending AFC champions averaged 19 points in their first three games, but in the last four are putting up 39.3 ppg. Tom Brady has been relatively consistent, but his weapons have improved, and so too has New England’s prolific offense. Receiver Josh Gordon was added to the team in Week 4, and Julian Edelman returned from suspension in Week 5. The Pats haven’t lost since.

Starting RB Sony Michel won’t play on Monday (knee), but likely replacement James White is already an integral part of the offense. He’s second in the NFL among RBs with 45 receptions and is averaging 4.7 yards per carry. New England’s defense, meanwhile, has just nine sacks, but it also has 10 INTs, one off the league lead. Both those numbers could rise dramatically against a Bills offense that has the most INTs in the NFL (12) and third-most sacks allowed (26).

Just because New England is the big favorite to win doesn’t mean it’ll cover. Just ask the Vikings, who were favored by 17 at home in Week 3 when Buffalo demolished them, 27-6. 

Things did not go well last week for QB Derek Anderson in his first start in two years, a 37-5 loss at Indianapolis. But he was signed by the Bills just one week prior and fortunes should improve on Monday as he gets used to the playbook and his teammates. 

While the passing game remains a work in progress, the run game has at least kept defenses honest. LeSean McCoy and Chris Ivory have combined for 454 yards. McCoy is recovering from a concussion and is questionable, but is expected to suit up. 

But if the Bills are to cover the spread Monday, it will be due to a defense that ranks No. 4 in the NFL in yards allowed. Buffalo has 19 sacks — defensive linemen Jerry Hughes, Kyle Williams and Trent Murphy have combined for 11, allowing the LB crew to focus on stopping other aspects. Teams are managing only 210 passing yards per game against Buffalo, fourth-fewest. 

We can tell you Oh is leaning under, but his stronger play is against the spread. An alarming stat has caused him to pounce on one side. He’s sharing what it is, and who to back, only at SportsLine.

Who covers in Patriots vs. Bills? And what alarming stats make one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to be all over, all from the data-driven New England expert who’s 16-7 on picks involving the Patriots.

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