NFL Week 11 odds, picks, schedule: Expert picks against the spread, predictions, survivor pool play

After a week of monster spreads, Week 11 is stacking up to be a week of close matchups and potentially dramatic finishes. The Seahawks and Packers got things started in that vein with Seattle’s comeback victory on Thursday night, but now we turn to key divisional games such as Vikings-Bears, Bengals-Ravens and Titans-Colts before the Chiefs and Rams figure to bring all the fireworks on Monday night.

We’ll take you game by game to reveal how our experts picked the lines earlier in the week while also sharing our thoughts on survivor pool picks for Week 11 and showing you all the great places you can find NFL picks talk throughout the week. Let’s get to it.

Which teams should you back in Week 11 of the NFL season? And which Super Bowl contender gets a huge scare? Visit SportsLine now to see which teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that has outperformed 98 percent of experts tracked by the past two seasons.     

Steelers at Jaguars

  • Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)  
  • Open: Steelers -3.5
  • Current: Steelers -5

“With the Steelers winning five straight and Jaguars losing five straight, there’s going to be some value in this line as the public keeps adjusting their perceptions of each team. But how can the Steelers be 5.5-point road favorites against a team that beat them twice last year? They’ll be coming into this game looking for revenge, sure, but the Jags know they have what it takes to beat this team, and they’re certain to feel disrespected by the expectations that they’re going to get blown out here.” — R.J. White on his SuperContest picks for Week 11 

I’m 1-0 so far this week after the Seahawks managed to cover the 2.5-point spread on Thursday. You can get all five of my contest picks at SportsLine, and use promo code WHITE to get your first month of access for just $1.

Panthers at Lions

  • Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)  
  • Open: Panthers -3
  • Current: Panthers -4.5

“Carolina got bullied by the Steelers, but the extra rest from that Thursday night beatdown will help them here. The Lions cannot protect Matt Stafford, they are going to struggle more on offense without Golden Tate. These are the kinds of lesser teams the Panthers beat up on.” — Jason La Canfora on his best bets 

La Canfora is only taking two teams as best bets this week, and you can find out which other side he likes in his Friday column.

Cowboys at Falcons

  • Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)  
  • Open: Falcons -3
  • Current: Falcons -3

“This is a classic sandwich game for the Cowboys. They beat the Eagles Sunday night, play this one, and then play the Redskins on Thanksgiving Day. That’s a tough swing. The Falcons are home for the first time in three weeks, and they are a much better team at home. The Falcons are 3-1 straight up and against the spread in the last four at home against the Cowboys. Make it 4-1 for both.” — Pete Prisco on his best bets 

Prisco is 11-4 on his best bets over the last three weeks, and if you want to follow along while he’s hot, check out who else he likes in his Week 11 best bets column.

Bengals at Ravens

  • Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)  
  • Open: Ravens -3.5
  • Current: Ravens -4

“The last time Hue Jackson was in Cincinnati, he was the offensive coordinator (2014-15), which could make things awkward for the current offensive coordinator (Bill Lazor), especially if the Bengals struggle at all on offense over the next few weeks. Hue will likely make some suggestions and then take zero responsibility if they go wrong (If we learned one thing about Jackson during his “I just got fired” media tour, it’s that he’ll throw anyone under the bus for anything). The good news for the Bengals is that I don’t think anyone is going to be thrown under any buses this week, because Cincinnati is going to win.” — John Breech on his Week 11 picks

Breech predicts the score of every game each Tuesday, and he correctly had the Seahawks winning by three points on Thursday while almost nailing the final score on the nose. Check out his thoughts on the other two primetime games and his predictions for the rest of the slate.

Titans at Colts

  • Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)  
  • Open: Colts -3
  • Current: Colts -1.5

“The idea that everyone, both public and the sharps, is on Tennessee terrifies me. The Titans are a really good team and Marcus Mariota is starting to get things really rolling on offense the last two weeks as he’s gotten on the same page with Matt LaFleur. But this is another case of Indy and Andrew Luck being undervalued. The Colts offensive line is playing excellent football led by Quenton Nelson, and Frank Reich is dialed in as a play caller right now. The Colts can win this division and with Tennessee coming off its midseason Super Bowl after a win over the Patriots at home, I like the Colts to come out and win this game.” — Pick Six Podcast host Will Brinson on his best bets

Brinson is out to a 1-0 start in his best bets after taking the Seahawks on Thursday. Find out who else he’s backing in his Friday column. 

Texans at Redskins

  • Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)  
  • Open: Texans -3
  • Current: Texans -3

“Houston has won six straight after losing their first three games of the season. They’ve also been one of the luckiest teams in the NFL this season. Now they’re coming off a bye and favored on the road against the Redskins. I’m not sure they should be. It’s not that I believe the Redskins to be a juggernaut. In fact, the Redskins strike me as a team that’s similar to the Texans. If anything they’re the ones that should be favored in this game, so if you’re getting three points, it’s hard to turn them down.” — Tom Fornelli on his best bets

Fornelli went 2-1 on his best bets last week and nailed his SportsLine bonus pick as well, and here’s who else he’s taking to stay hot this weekend.

Buccaneers at Giants

  • Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)  
  • Open: Pick ’em
  • Current: Giants -2.5

R.J. White: “I look at the motivation factor of this game. The Giants staff isn’t going anywhere, they’re building for the future. The players know this staff is in place, they’re trying to secure a place on the team for next year. This Tampa staff is one foot out the door, the players there know they don’t have to listen to these guys anymore. … This Tampa team seems like it’s falling apart, this Giants team seems like it could be a little stronger in the second half than we think because of that motivation factor.” 

Will Brinson: “First of all, the Giants are coming back from San Francisco, where they played a — I don’t care what you say, it was an emotional Monday night win … I think it ends up being a shootout, and it comes down to one fluke play here or there, and I’ll take Tampa for variance sake because they lost last week and the Giants won.” 

White: “If it comes down to one fluke play, you’re going to take the team that’s worst in turnovers on both sides of the ball?” 

Brinson: “I’m gonna take the team that just lost, instead of the team that just won on primetime.” 

White: “Tampa gets done in by fluke plays all the time, I think if you’re gonna base your theory on one fluke play, you want to be going against Tampa, not with them.” 

Brinson: “Pete, you’re a fluke play, what do you think about this game?” 

Pete Prisco: “Look, I’m with R.J. I like the Giants, they’re playing better football. The Giants showed some life last week on the road, and I know San Francisco stinks but the Bucs are packing it in. They know the coach is going, their linebackers are all banged up in this game, [Saquon] Barkley’s gonna run wild.”

That’s from the Friday edition of the Pick Six Podcast, hosted by Will Brinson five days a week. You can check it out below and get our thoughts on the entire NFL slate. Remember to click the button to subscribe!

Broncos at Chargers

  • Time: Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS)  
  • Open: Chargers -7
  • Current: Chargers -7

“I’ve been saying for a couple weeks now that I think the Chargers are the second-best team in the AFC. Their two losses have come against the Chiefs and Rams. They should be able to take care of business against a Broncos team that has lost six of its past seven games. Look for Melvin Gordon to run all over the Broncos, who are allowing the seventh-most rushing yards per game and the eighth-most yards per rushing attempt. Unfortunately for their Super Bowl hopes, they’re stuck in the same division as the Chiefs, which means they’ll probably slot in as a wild card team.” — Sean Wagner-McGough on his best bets

Wagner-McGough is 30-19-1 in his best bets column this year, so you should head over and find out who else he likes in Week 11.

Raiders at Cardinals

  • Time: Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS)  
  • Open: Cardinals -4
  • Current: Cardinals -5.5

With how the Cardinals played over the first half of the season, there’s no way you’d expect someone advocating making them your survivor pool pick in Week 11. But that’s exactly what I’m going to do. The offense has played much better with the switch to Byron Leftwich at offensive coordinator, and the next time the Raiders defense gets a stop will be the first. The Cardinals defense has quietly been one of the best in the league, and I don’t expect Oakland to score much on the road in this matchup. And while the Cardinals are only the third-biggest favorite of the week, the Raiders aren’t as frisky of an underdog as the Eagles or Broncos. This will be the only chance you have to use the Cards this year; might as well take it and save the better teams left in your arsenal for the final six weeks.

SportsLine expert Mike Tierney shares his thoughts on survivor pool play for Week 11 over at SportsLine, and considering he’s at 72 percent straight up on all games over the last seven weeks, you might want to listen.

Eagles at Saints

  • Time: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (FOX)  
  • Open: Saints -7
  • Current: Saints -7.5

“Everyone has buried the Eagles after last week’s home loss to Dallas, while everyone is crowning the Saints as the NFL’s best team. While the latter might be true, the former isn’t, and while the Saints might win, the number is too big for them to cover. Carson Wentz puts up huge numbers and Philly falls inside the number.” — CBS Sports HQ host Nick Kostos on his best bets

Kostos is rolling in the Las Vegas SuperContest with a 29-21 record as competitors chase a $1.4 million payout in the world’s biggest NFL picks competition. He’s joined by a cavalcade of NFL betting experts each Sunday at noon ET for SportsLine’s NFL preview, where the team goes through the NFL slate each week and shares what you have to know before placing your bets. Be sure to join them at noon ET on Sunday over at CBS Sports HQ, your 24/7 home for news, analysis, Fantasy and gambling insight, and more.   

Vikings at Bears

  • Time: Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)  
  • Open: Bears -3
  • Current: Bears -2.5

“Minnesota’s defense is getting healthy and Mitchell Trubisky will not have a good game Sunday night. Dalvin Cook came back before the bye and had 109 yards from scrimmage. That really helps their offense, which already has two top-flight wideouts and a good tight end. The Vikings are better than Chicago and they’re getting points.” — Hammerin’ Hank Goldberg on his best bets

Goldberg hit a 6-1 parlay on his best bets last week, so you’ll want to check out who else he’s confident will cover in Week 11 at SportsLine.

Chiefs at Rams

  • Time: Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)  
  • Open: Rams -3
  • Current: Rams -3.5

Vegas legend Micah Roberts has worked in the Las Vegas sportsbook industry for 20 years, including a 13-year run as Station Casinos’ book director. Armed with an unmatched network of sources, Roberts has started the 2018 NFL season strong. He’s on a 27-17 run picking NFL odds, and has been especially adept at picking games involving Kansas City. Since joining SportsLine as a handicapper, Roberts is on an epic 14-3 run picking Chiefs games.

Roberts has a strong play on this game, and you can read all about it over at SportsLine.

Thanks for checking us out, and good luck with your picks in Week 11!

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