NFL Pick ’em Pool Picks Week 12: Expert advice on favorites, upsets to consider in confidence pools, office pools

This might be the toughest week yet in NFL pick ’em pools and survivor pools, which is really saying something considering how many notable upsets there have been. With a bunch of shaky favorites and some overvalued underdogs, this is the type of week where you can make a big move or fall out of contention. Fortunately, the experts from TeamRankings are here with some strategy tips and advice for your Week 12 NFL picks.

Picks that are being underrated by the public can yield weekly gains that make the difference between winning and losing a season-long NFL pool, while smart upset picks can drive success in weekly pools. TeamRankings is the only site that provides customized picks that maximize your edge in NFL pick ’em pools. Check out TeamRankings’ Football Pick ’em Picks, NFL Survivor Picks, and NFL Betting Picks. For a limited time, you can also get a free three-day trial of all their premium football picks.

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Week 12 NFL Pick ’em Pool Picks: Tips, strategy

How We Identify NFL Week 12 Value Picks

This article is written on Wednesday, but if the win odds and pick popularity numbers hold, the teams below all provide compelling risk-vs.-reward trade-offs to differentiate your Week 12 picks from your pool opponents.

It’s important to note that we’re not necessarily saying you should make all of these picks. In particular, some upset picks may be unnecessarily risky for your pool, even if they are technically undervalued. You need to take an overall level of risk with your picks that’s appropriate for your pool size and rules. Season-long pools typically call for more conservative picks than single-week pools. If you want our game-by-game pick recommendations for all of your specific pools, use our Football Pick ’em Picks product.

Note: Win odds and estimated pick popularity data below may change between publication time and kickoff time. If you want the latest numbers, our product updates multiple times per day.

New England Patriots vs. Tennessee Titans

Point Spread: -6.5
Pick Popularity: 75%
Category: Value Favorite

It’s pretty rare for a favorite of almost a touchdown to serve as a value favorite, but that’s what we have this week with New England, as the Titans’ record (8-3) and performance in other big games is driving enough upset picks in their favor.

Our projections have New England with the second-highest win odds of any team this week, but the public is picking seven other favorites more frequently. That makes for the best of both worlds: getting a favorite with higher win odds while a chunk of the pool is going the other way. So, stick with New England in game-winner pools and use it at higher confidence in confidence-point pools.

WEEK 12 DFS LINEUPS: DraftKings | FanDuel | Yahoo

Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers

Point Spread: PK
Pick Popularity: 33%
Category: Unpopular Toss-up

The Rams got a week off after their two-game losing streak to Tennessee and San Francisco. The Packers are coming off a loss last week to the Vikings, and Aaron Rodgers aggravated his toe injury in that game.

Right now, this one is basically dead even in the betting markets, but the public is taking the Packers at a two-to-one ratio. That means value in weekly pools by taking the less popular side.

Football Picks From TeamRankings:
Survivor Pool Picks | Pick ’em Pool Picks | NFL Betting Picks

Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Point Spread: +2.5
Pick Popularity: 22%
Category: Value Gamble in Weekly Contests

The Chargers are a popular pick this week after their Sunday Night Football win over the Steelers. About 78 percent of the public is taking them. However, Denver is just a 2.5-point underdog. Our models are a bit more positive on the Broncos’ chances relative to the betting markets.

As a result, Denver is the highest-leverage upset play on the board this week.

WEEK 12 PPR RANKINGS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions

Point Spread: -3.5
Pick Popularity: 69%
Category: Favorite at a Reasonable Price

Ordinarily, a mediocre team like the Bears with 69-percent popularity wouldn’t be a particularly good value play, but this is not a typical week. The Bears are the ninth-most popular favorite right now, but just four other teams are favored by more points this week.

As a result, sticking with the favored Bears on Thanksgiving Day in the showdown between Andy Dalton vs. Jared Goff or Tim Boyle at quarterback seems like the value play.

New York Jets at Houston Texans

Point Spread: +2.5
Pick Popularity: 22%
Category: Value Gamble in Weekly Contests

The Texans are coming off a big win, and they now are favorites for the first time all season. The Jets will reportedly get rookie QB Zach Wilson (knee) back after Joe Flacco started last week’s game.

Given that Houston isn’t the strongest of favorites, the public is a little too supportive of the Texans here. That means some value in taking the Jets in this showdown of 2-8 teams.

Week 12 NFL Survivor Pool Picks: Most popular picks

Finally, it’s a pretty wide-open week in survivor pools with no big favorites. Here are the most popular survivor picks for Week 12:

You can check out our Week 12 pick analysis and get our customized pick recommendations if you are still competing in a survivor pool.

Get All Our Week 12 NFL Picks

Football Pick ’em Picks from TeamRankings is the only product that gives you the picks, tools, and analysis you need to maximize your edge in NFL pick ’em pools. It uses algorithms to identify the calculated risks that give you the best chance to win your straight-up, point spread, or confidence pool.

From a strategy perspective, game theory is a foundational aspect of winning pick ’em pools. In short, to win a pick ’em pool, you have to score points that your opponents miss. That means you need to identify unpopular picks that are worth a calculated gamble and avoid trendy upset picks not worth the risk. Our product does all that number crunching for you, 71 percent of our subscribers report winning a prize in football picks contests.

If you want to learn more about football pick ’em pool strategy, you can also check out our free articles about strategy for winning football pick ’em pools.

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Good luck in your pools this week!

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