NFL odds, picks for Week 10: Advanced computer model loving Patriots, Packers
If you believe the latest Week 10 NFL odds, several blowouts could be in the making this week. Six games feature one side favored by at least a touchdown, and four games have a double-digit spread. The Chiefs opened as 14-point home favorites against the Cardinals, and that line has already moved to -16.5, making Kansas City one of the largest favorites of the year. Other teams with big NFL spreads this week include the Chargers (-10) against the Raiders and the Rams (-10) against the Seahawks. With NFL odds and lines of all sizes, check out the top Week 10 NFL picks and predictions from SportsLine’s proven computer before locking in your own.
SportsLine’s proprietary computer model went 176-80 last season and beat over 95 percent of CBS Sports Office Pool players in 2016 and ’17. It also performed better than 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com during that span. Additionally, it went 48-34 on A-rated picks against the spread last season, and $100 bettors who have followed it the past two seasons are up nearly $4,000.
The model has continued to nail its top-rated picks in 2018, entering Week 10 on a strong 8-0 run. For the season, it is now 22-9 on all top-rated picks, extending its two-year run to a blistering 70-43. And when it comes to all straight-up picks, the model is 89-43 this season, again ranking in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch.com. Anybody who has been following it is way, way up.
Now it has examined the latest NFL odds and spreads, simulated every snap 10,000 times, and its Week 10 NFL picks are in.
One of the top Week 10 NFL picks the model loves: The Patriots (-7) cover in Nashville against the Titans.
Plenty of familiar faces will meet up in this matchup as Titans coach Mike Vrabel takes on former coach Bill Belichick. And although Tennessee pulled off the upset in Week 9 on the road against the Cowboys, the model likes the value on the Patriots this weekend.
Tom Brady throws for over 300 yards, according to the model, helping New England cover in almost 55 percent of simulations. There’s also plenty of value on the under (48.5) because that hits over 55 percent of the time in this battle of two defenses that are giving up fewer than 23 points per game.
Another one of the strong Week 10 NFL predictions from the model: The Packers (-10) cover at home against the Dolphins.
This line has shot up after opening at -7, but there’s still value on Green Bay at Lambeau Field. That’s because the Dolphins have lost four of their past six overall and own just a 1-3 mark against the spread on the road this year. The challenge is even more daunting for Miami since temperatures are expected to hover around freezing at kickoff.
Brock Osweiler, who is slated to get another start in place of the injured Ryan Tannehill (shoulder), is projected to throw for just over 200 yards and has about the same chance of tossing an interception as a touchdown. Aaron Rodgers, meanwhile, goes off for about 350 yards as the Packers cover in almost 60 percent of simulations.
The model also has a strong selection for the huge Cowboys vs. Eagles showdown on “Sunday Night Football” and is calling for a Super Bowl contender to get a huge scare against a big underdog.
What NFL picks can you make with confidence in Week 10? And what Super Bowl contender gets a huge scare? Check out the latest NFL odds below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that has beaten 98 percent of experts over the past two years.
Carolina Panthers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4, 51.5)
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (-7.5, 37)
Atlanta Falcons at Cleveland Browns (+4, 51)
New Orleans Saints at Cincinnati Bengals (+4.5, 54)
Washington Redskins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3, 51.5)
New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans (+7, 46.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-3, 47)
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-6.5, 45)
Arizona Cardinals at Kansas City Chiefs (-16.5, 50)
Los Angeles Chargers at Oakland Raiders (+10, 50.5)
Miami Dolphins at Green Bay Packers (-10, 47.5)
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (-10, 51.5)
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5, 43)
New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers (-3, 43.5)
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