Tampa Bay Lightning at Colorado Avalanche odds, picks and best bets

The Tampa Bay Lightning (39-15-5) visit the Colorado Avalanche (33-18-6) Monday at Pepsi Center for a 9 p.m. ET puck drop. The Lightning go for an 11th-straight victory, while the Avs look to snap a two-game losing skid. We analyze the Lightning-Avalanche sports betting odds and lines, while providing NHL betting tips and picks around this matchup.

Lightning at Avalanche: Projected starting goalies

Andrei Vasilevskiy vs. Pavel Francouz

Vasilevskiy has allowed just one goal in three of his last four starts while extending his personal winning streak to eight games. He’s 32-9-3 on the season with a .921 save percentage and 2.42 goals against average. Vasilevskiy was torched by the Avs for six goals on 24 shots earlier this season.

Francouz has been exceptional for the Avalanche this season in his first full NHL campaign. He is 13-5-2 with a .925 SV% and 2.44 GAA for his rookie season. Francouz stopped 44 of 46 shots in a win over the Lightning earlier this year.


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Lightning at Avalanche: Odds, picks and betting tips

Odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list.
Odds last updated at 12:30 p.m. ET.

Prediction

Lightning 3, Avalanche 1

Moneyline (ML)

The LIGHTNING (-125) come into Monday as the favorites on the road. Both teams last played Saturday, with the Avalanche (+105) losing 3-1 to the Los Angeles Kings, and the Lightning topping the Philadelphia Flyers 5-3. The Avs earned a 6-2 victory over the Lightning in Tampa Oct. 19, but that was amid a poor starting stretch to the season for the hosts.

The Lightning are 19-8-3 on the road for the season and have a league-best plus-55 goal differential through 59 games. Five of their 10 straight wins came on the road. The Avalanche are 15-9-4 on home ice and carry a goal differential of plus-43 through 57 games. Tampa Bay will lose eventually, but it won’t be Monday and the odds are still profitable enough to warrant a play.

New to sports betting? A $10 bet on the Lightning to win in regulation, overtime or a shootout returns a profit of $8.

Puck Line/Against the Spread (ATS)

After a pair of 2-1 overtime victories over the Columbus Blue Jackets and Pittsburgh Penguins to extend their streak to eight straight wins, the Lightning have won their last two games by two goals each. Back the LIGHTNING (-1.5, +200) to win by at least two goals once again to double your money.

Tampa Bay is 27-32 against the spread overall and 13-17 on the road, while Colorado is 32-25 ATS overall but just 14-14 at home. Seven of the Lightning’s last 10 wins have been by margins of at least two goals.

Over/Under (O/U)

Play the alternate total line (in regular time) Monday and back the UNDER 5.5 (+135). The Lightning are just 2-5-3 against the Over/Under across their last 10 games and the Avs are 4-6-0 over the same stretch. Both of Monday’s goaltenders are in top form.

Esten’s NHL betting record: 234-222

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