Raceday focus: Tips, analysis and best bets for The Valley on Saturday
Herald Sun form analyst Brad Waters previews every race for Saturday’s meeting at The Valley. Plus, Nick Quinn’s Mailbag.
MALICORNE (Race 2, No. 1)
Smart mare that didn’t come up in her only Adelaide run in May. She trialled well at Cranbourne and has the class to handle her rivals first-up.
SCARLET TUFTY (Race 4, No. 1)
Went back from a wide gate and never really got a crack at them first-up. Will be fitter for that and can settle closer from a better gate this time.
1, 3, 5, 8/1, 3, 4/1, 3, 4, 12/1, 2, 4, 12, 13
$100 flexi for 41 per cent
1, 3, 4, 12/1, 2, 4, 13/1, 2, 4, 7/2, 4, 7/1, 3, 5/2, 3, 11
$100 flexi for 5.78 per cent
Race 6: 1, 2, 4, 7
Race 7: 2, 4, 7
Race 8: 1, 3, 5, 9
Race 9: 2, 3, 6, 11
$100 flexi for 52 per cent
RACE 1: 12:50PM ROLL THE DICE RACING PLATE (1200m)
A field of three-year-old fillies starts Saturday’s meeting at The Valley with a pair of first starters adding plenty of intrigue. DECENT RAINE (4) showed an impressive turn of foot when scoring first-up and a similar effort would make her tough to beat around The Valley. ZAPATEO (1) is the testing material after her strong win on this track last time. ZOUZARELLA (9) can show up on debut if she reproduces her strong Cranbourne trial effort. SLIDERS (2) went well in a Group 2 race in Sydney first-up last time and has the quality to threaten.
SUGGESTED BET: Small win best Decent Raine.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Zouzarella $6 – $4.40
Decent Raine can get punters off to the perfect start with a win in the opening race at The Valley. Picture: Racing Photos via Getty ImagesSource:Getty Images
RACE 2: 1:25PM DR SHEAHAN PLATE (1200m)
Happy to back MALICORNE (1) to score first-up with her class edge on her opposition. She was narrowly beaten by La Mexicana and Yes Baby Yes in two Group races in the autumn. She was another that performed well at the Cranbourne trials. LOVE SENSATION (5) is another that can show up fresh after two trials. DON’TTELLTHEBOSS (3) might want further but she is a Valley winner and will be running on late. SUGARTOWN (8) is consistent and should be thereabouts with blinkers first time.
SUGGESTED BET: Malicorne to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Sugartown $3.90 – $3.60.
RACE 3: 2:05PM STUART MURRAY HANDICAP (1200m)
A small but tricky field engaged at Benchmark 90 level here. CORNER POCKET (3) was flying with four straight wins this time in before a break. He’s drawn barrier one and should be hard to run down again. INN KEEPER (1) has raced well in harder races recently and could bob up at odds. ROCK TYCOON (8) was narrowly beaten at The Valley last start and should be in this for a long way with only 51kg on his back. FRONT PAGE (4) resumes from spell but has plenty of ability.
SUGGESTED BET: Corner Pocket to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Corner Pocket $2.70 – $2.50.
Corner Pocket can continue his impressive winning streak for trainer Lindsey Smith and jockey Declan Bates. Picture: Racing Photos via Getty ImagesSource:Getty Images
RACE 4: 2:45PM TONY GULLIVER HANDICAP (1600m)
Having a bit of a throw at the stumps in this even race with SCARLET TUFTY (1). The import went well at his first run back from a long spell at Caulfield. He had to go back to last from barrier 16 and made ground despite being unable to be fully ridden out in the straight. He’s drawn to race closer on Saturday and could improve sharply. CHIEF ALTONY (4) is racing in great heart and drops in class. SMOKE BOMB (12) scored a fighting win at Bendigo last start and should be around the mark here. ORLEANS ROCK (11) will give a start but will be doing his best work late.
SUGGESTED BET: Scarlet Tufty each-way.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Chief Altony $5.50 – $4.20.
RACE 5: 3:25PM LADBROKE IT HANDICAP (2500m)
A deep staying here with plenty of winning chances. HEIR TO THE THRONE (4) has thrived since Andrea leek has taken over his training and he was a strong Sandown winner last time. Jamie Kah stays with him in a promising sign. JUST AS SOON (13) has come back in terrific form with strong wins at her last two runs and can win again. SMOKIN’ ROMANS (1) has thrived on the longer trips and must be respected again as does TAVIRUN (2) after his solid effort at The Valley last time.
SUGGESTED BET: Heir To The Throne to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Red Santa $10 – $5
RACE 6: 4:05PM LISTED MCMAHON’S DAIRY MCKENZIE STAKES (1200m)
Only nine runners but a good edition of the McKenzie Stakes this year. Giving JIGSAW (1) another chance after his narrow defeat at The Valley second-up. He carried 60kg and gave his rivals up to 5.5kg that day but only gives away 1kg under 57kg this time. DAILY BUGLE (2) has trialled well and will finish strongly fresh. FRONTMAN (7) is another that went well at the trials and looks set for a decent campaign. HILAL (4) is likely to give a start but has the class to threaten here first-up.
SUGGESTED BET: Jigsaw to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Hilal $3.10 – $2.40
RACE 7: 4:40PM RANVET STAKES (2040M)
Buckhurst was an early scratching but the second leg of the quaddie is still one of the harder races of the day. Going with the marvel MAHAMEDEIS (4) to post another win at The Valley, where he has won three of his previous six starts and is unbeaten over the 2040m course. PANCHO (7) is racing consistently and is a chance to break through for a win. AKTAU (2) went well enough when resuming on this track last time out and will be much fitter for that. SALSAMOR (8) showed he was just about ready to win last time out and should get every chance.
SUGGESTED BET: Mahamedeis to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Heart Of Puissance $3.40 – $3.
A hectic early speed could suit Greyworm in the Listed Carlyon Stakes at The Valley. Picture: AAP.Source:AAP
RACE 8: 5:15PM LISTED LONG FINE CARLYON STAKES (1000m)
The speed will be hectic from the outset of the Carlyon Stakes, which could suit GREYWORM (3). The Hawkes Racing-trained galloper was beaten less than a length when resuming last time in and was only three lengths from Classique Legend and Eduardo in The Shorts last year. He can finish over the top of the speedsters. ANCESTRY (1) is unbeaten at The Valley and excels at 1000m. The early high pressure will suit EXPRESS PASS (5), who could have the last shot at the leaders. MISS ALBANIA (9) was too strong at Flemington last time and was an easy winner at her only Valley run.
SUGGESTED BET: Greyworm to win
TAB MARKET MOVER: Miss Albania $5 – $4.60
RACE 9: 5:45PM COX PLATE MULTI MEMBERSHIP HANDICAP (1500m)
A tricky race to finish over the 1500m course at The Valley, which can be awkward, especially if a full field of 14 starts. Hoping for a Ben Melham gem to get GROUNDSWELL (2) into his usual front-running position from barrier 14. If Melham can find the lead without using up too much of Groundswell’s energy, he’ll be hard to run down. AL GALAYEL (3) went well enough first-up and loves The Valley. DEGRAVES (11) was as fighting winner at Flemington at his Australian debut and should run well again. SOVEREIGN AWARD (6) usually goes well first-up and she drops in class on her autumn assignments.
SUGGESTED BET: Groundswell to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Degraves $3.6 – $3.10.
NICK QUINN’S MAILBAG
TAB tipping expert Nick Quinn gives his suggested bets for Randwick and The Valley.
BEST BET: Corner Pocket (The Valley, R3 No. 3)
VALUE BET: Kolding (Randwick, R8 No.1)
LAY OF THE WEEK: Heart Of Puissance (The Valley, R7 No.1)
WINX STAKES (1400M)
Randwick, R8, 3.45pm
Verry Elleegant won this race last year, nabbing stablemate Star Of The Seas, before going on win three Group 1 races, including the Turnbull Stakes and the Caulfield Cup.
She has the brilliance to win again, although she did start $7.50 when saluting last year and this time heads the market at $2.90.
Kolding is on the second line of betting at $5 and is another of Chris Waller’s five runners. He was well backed first-up in the Missile Stakes when fifth and steps up to 1400m, where he has won six times from 15 attempts, including the Group 1 All Aged Stakes.
There has been money for the Annabel Neasham-trained Mo’unga, who has firmed from $8 into $7.50.
The Rosehill Guineas winner has upside and can measure up against the older runners.
A runner I expect will run well and go on to have a big spring carnival is Mount Popa.
The Hawkes-trained seven-year-old raced his way into the Caulfield Cup with a dominant win in the Mornington Cup, and is also nominated for the Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup.
He is most likely to find the Winx Stakes too sharp, but look for him to be hitting the line and stick him into your black book for the spring.
THE TIP: KOLDING each-way.
MCKENZIE STAKES (1200M)
The Valley, R6, 4.05pm
I am going to be forgiving and stick with Jigsaw. He returned from a spell with a sizzling win at Caulfield but never looked in control last start at The Valley when beaten as a short-priced favourite. He is now an attractive quote at $2.40.
The early money has come for the Hawkes-trained Hilal, backed from $3.10 into $2.40.
He was ultra-impressive when winning on debut in February and has twice placed at Group 1 level.
I expect Hilal to go on to prove himself the best horse in this race, but suspect first-up the 1200m might be a fraction short.
At longer odds there has been support for the Mark Kavanagh-trained Beldivian, who has been backed from $18 into $15.
He showed an electric turn of foot to win on debut and is worth including in the multiples.
THE TIP: JIGSAW win.
Grand Promenade is a good each-way chance. Picture: AAPSource:AAP
RANVET HANDICAP (2040M)
The Valley, R7, 4.40pm
An open race and I am surprised to see Heart Of Puissance so short at $3.40.
The Maher-Eustace stable saddles up the top three in the market with Grand Promenade $4 and High Emocean $6.50.
Grand Promenade has won his past two starts at Flemington. The slight concern is the drop back in trip, but at the odds he looks the each-way play in the race.
Heart Of Puissance is a winning chance, but looks way under the odds, and I expect he will start closer to $5 than his current quote.
Buckhurst was disappointing first-up when unplaced as favourite. It was his first run since the Cox Plate so he should derive benefit and is worth including in quaddies.
THE TIP: GRAND PROMENADE win.
Originally published asThe Valley tips: Malicorne to score
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